While there is some relationship between set EV and the average price of a booster box sold, it is not statistically significant. The analysis on the Regression 1 tab helps answer this question. Regression 2 compares the sale $ multiplier of EV to set release dates.ĭoes Set EV of a Booster Box Affect Price Premiums? This regression shows the highest correlation in the analysis with a Multiple R of 0.73 and R Squared of 0.53. Regression 1 compares MTG set EV to the average sold booster box price on Ebay. If you are unfamiliar with regression, you can read a basic explanation here. While neither regression is statically significant, they show the highest correlations between the different metrics. Two regressions are included in the data file. The rest of the columns on the Set Prices tab are calculations from the different metrics. Release date information was found on Wikipedia. While I do not believe Wikipedia is an ideal resource for pulling accurate data, it had the most comprehensive information available online. The lack of information available for some sets creates challenges for compiling data. I used listed English booster box prices only for Planeshift since no recorded sales were found. A few sets had little to no recorded sales during the data pull time frame. The information regarding booster boxes sold by set is on the Box Sales History tab. Any sets I was unable to find 30 individual booster box sales has the number next to the set name highlighted in red. Next, I collected up to 30 English sealed booster boxes sold from Ebay between Jand October 17, 2019. This information serves as a baseline price someone may pay for a booster box. I pulled set EV from MTG Dawnglare for each set. On the Set Prices tab, I grouped the 30 sets between best and worst draft experiences. The Draft Set Resources tab provides rankings and links to articles I used to decide on the 30 different MTG sets in the data. Ultimately, players would draft one pack of each set when an entire block was released. Each subsequent set would change the amount of packs used from the first set. The draft experience for the beginning of the block consisted of three packs from the first set. Older MTG sets were often printed in three set blocks. I found articles from professional players, content creators, and Reddit ranking draft experiences by set and block. In order to understand the draft experience, I searched online for articles rating the best and worst MTG draft sets of all time. You can download the entire data along with charts here. I measured how the draft experience, EV, and age of a booster box affects the overall price premium. Why would an individual pay five times the EV for a booster box? I attempted to answer this question through an analysis of 30 different sets in MTG’s history. This price premium can add hundreds of dollars to the EV of a sealed booster box. When purchasing sealed booster boxes of sets out of print, players can expect a market price premium above the average expected value (EV) of its contents. Common motives for buying booster boxes include drafting, collecting, and opening booster packs. There are many reasons why players of Magic: The Gathering purchase sealed booster boxes.
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